Experts' Stated Behavior
AbstractWe ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2008-001-MKT.
Date of creation: 09 Jan 2008
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decision making; expert forecasts; model forecasts; stated behavior;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2008-03-08 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2008-03-08 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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