This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Experts' Stated Behavior

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Boulaksil, Y.
Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University)
Abstract

We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/10900
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. in its series Research Paper with number ERS-2008-001-MKT Revision_Date: 2009-11-06.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 09 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureri:1765010900

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (ERIM Series Handler at the ERIM Office).

Related research
Keywords: model forecasts; expert forecasts; decision making; stated behavior;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E. & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Yaniv, Ilan & Kleinberger, Eli, 2000. "Advice Taking in Decision Making: Egocentric Discounting and Reputation Formation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 260-281, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Klassen, Robert D. & Flores, Benito E., 2001. "Forecasting practices of Canadian firms: Survey results and comparisons," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 163-174, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Franses, Philip Hans, 2008. "Merging models and experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS is also providing many rankings, for example of authors and institutions.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-9.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.