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Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics R. Paap ()
H.K. van Dijk () (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)
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Stylized facts show that average growth rates of US per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables to examine the permanent income hypothesis may not be valid. To model the changing growth rates in both series, we introduce a multivariate Markov trend model, which accounts for different growth rates in consumption and income during expansions and recessions and across variables within both regimes. The deviations from the multivariate Markov trend are modeled by a vector autoregressive model. Bayes estimates of this model are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The empirical results suggest the existence of a cointegration relation between US per capita disposable income and consumption, after correction for a multivariate Markov trend. This results is also obtained when per capita investment is added to the vector autoregression.
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number
295.
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Date of creation: 2002Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:2002295Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.few.eur.nl/few
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Keywords: Multivariate Markov trend Cointegration MCMC Permanent income hypothesis ; Find related papers by JEL classification: C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
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