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A Bayesian analysis of the PPP puzzle using an unobserved components model

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Author Info
R.H. Kleijn ()
H.K. Van Dijk () (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)

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Abstract

The failure to describe the time series behaviour of most real exchange rates as temporary deviations from fixed long-term means may be due to time variation of the equilibria themselves, see Engel (2000). We implement this idea using an unobserved components model and decompose the observations on real exchange rates in long-term components, which capture the time-variation of the mean and in medium and short-term components which measure temporary deviations. A simulation-based Bayesian analysis is introduced to compute the posterior distribution of (functions) of the model parameters. A stationarity test in this setup indicates that the mean is slowly time-varying. Subsequently, we use our flexible model to derive the implied distributions of some key features of real exchange rates. Most notably, the half-life of deviations from the mean, which is a measure of persistence, is lowered. This provides a possible explanation for the PPP puzzle.

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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number 236.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:2001236

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Related research
Keywords: Purchasing power parity puzzle Real exchange rate Time-varying mean Gibbs sampling;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Clark, Peter K., 1988. "Nearly redundant parameters and measures of persistence in economic time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 447-461. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Van Dijk, H.K. & Koop, G., 1999. "Testing for Integration Using Evolving Trend and Seasonals Models : A Bayesian Approach," Papers 9934/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
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  5. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:552-78 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Zivot, Eric, 1994. "A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 552-578, August. [Downloadable!]
  10. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Zivot, E., 1993. "A Bayesian Analysis of the Unit Root Hypothesis Within an Unobserved Components Model," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 93-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  14. Koopman, S.J. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using ssfpack 2.2," Discussion Paper 141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2005. "How Puzzling is the PPP Puzzle? An Alternative Half-Life Measure of convergence to PPP," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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