This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
D. van Dijk ()
T. Terasvirta ()
P.H. Franses () (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive [STAR] time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting. Several useful extensions of the basic STAR model, which concern multiple regimes, time-varying nonlinear properties, and models for vector time series, are also reviewed.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.eur.nl/WebDOC/doc/econometrie/feweco20000609141913.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number 200.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:2000200

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.few.eur.nl/few

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Anneke Kop).

Related research
Keywords: regime-switching models model specification model evalution forecasting impulse response analysis;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  3. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43. [Downloadable!]
  4. Medeiros, Marcelo & Veiga, Alvaro, 2000. "A Flexible Coefficient Smooth Transition Time Series Model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 360, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 10 Feb 2000.
  5. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
    Other versions:
  6. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  13. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Arulampalam, W. & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2002. "University of Warwick," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 9, Royal Economic Society.
  16. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. P. Rothman & D.J.C. van Dijk & P.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Report 170, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
    Other versions:
  20. Kurt Hornik & Maxwell Stinchcombe & Halbert White, 1990. "Universal Approximation of an Unknown Mapping And Its Derivatives Using Multilayer Feedforward Networks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 89-36r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  21. Kåre Johansen, . "Nonlinear Wage Responses to Internal and External Factors," Working Paper Series 0902, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 25 Aug 2002. [Downloadable!]
  22. Astatkie, T. & Watts, D. G. & Watt, W. E., 1997. "Nested threshold autoregressive (NeTAR) models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 105-116, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304. [Downloadable!]
  24. Alvaro Escribano & Oscar Jorda, . "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Department of Economics 97-26, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  25. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
    Other versions:
  26. Pierre L. Siklos & Clive W.J. Granger, 1996. "Temporary Cointegration With an Application to Interest Rate Parity," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  27. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
  28. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Forbes, Catherine S & Kalb, Guyonne R J & Kofman, Paul, 1999. "Bayesian Arbitrage Threshold Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 364-72, July.
    Other versions:
  30. Quandt, Richard E., 1983. "Computational problems and methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 699-764 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Neftci, Salih N, 1993. "Statistical Analysis of Shapes in Macroeconomic Time Series: Is There a Business Cycle?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 215-24, April.
  32. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
    Other versions:
  36. Van Dijk, D. & Franses, P.H., 1997. "Nonlinear Error-Correction Models for Interest rates in the Netherlands," Papers 9704/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
    Other versions:
  37. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1985. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Tests in Regression Directions," Working Papers 616, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  38. Granger, Clive W J, 1993. "Strategies for Modelling Nonlinear Time-Series Relationships," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(206), pages 233-38, September.
  39. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1996. "Is the US Business Cycle Asymmetric? Some Further Evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 405-15, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  41. Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998. "A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  42. Philip Rothman, . "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  43. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-165, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  44. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  45. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-32. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  46. Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 1995. "Stylized facts and regime changes: Are prices procyclical?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 497-526, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  47. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  48. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  49. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
  50. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  51. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  52. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  53. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June. [Downloadable!]
  54. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  55. Chung-Ming Kuan & Halbert White, 1992. "Artificial Neural Networks: An Econometric Perspective," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
  56. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  57. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    Other versions:
  58. Granger, C W J & Swanson, Norman, 1996. "Future Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 537-53, August.
  59. Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers 88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  60. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    Other versions:
  61. P.H.B.F. Franses & P. de Bruin & D.J.C. van Dijk, 2000. "Seasonal smooth transition autoregression," Econometric Institute Report 185, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  62. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  63. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 467, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  64. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1986. "Estimation and inference for dependent processes," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 45, pages 2639-2738 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  65. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was sponsored from 1997 to 2002 by the Université du Québec à Montréal.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.