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From boom til bust

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Author Info
A. Berkelaar ()
R. Kouwenberg () (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)

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Abstract

In 1996 Alan Greenspan warned that stock prices were ``unduly escalated'' and reflected ``irrational exuberance''. In this paper we describe an economy that can support a prolonged surge of asset prices, accompanied by a sharp increase of volatility. We study an equilibrium model where some agents are risk averse while others have loss averse preferences over wealth, according to prospect theory. We derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium prices. In good states of the world, the loss averse investors with wealth above the threshold are momentum traders, thereby pushing prices far above the level in the benchmark economy. In moderately bad states of the world, the loss averse investors are contrarian, and equilibrium prices are kept relatively high and stable. Finally in extremely bad states, the loss averse investors are forced to retreat from the stock market in order to avoid bankruptcy, resulting in a sharp price drop.

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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number 196.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:2000196

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Related research
Keywords: asset pricing equilibrium behavioral finance loss aversion;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
  5. Suleyman Basak & Alexander Shapiro, 1999. "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-032, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Constantinides, George M, 1982. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and without Demand Aggregation," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 253-67, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Berkelaar, A.B. & Kouwenberg, R.R.P., 2000. "Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion," Econometric Institute Report EI 2000-08/A Revision_Dat, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  13. Grossman, Sanford J & Zhou, Zhongquan, 1996. " Equilibrium Analysis of Portfolio Insurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1379-1403, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Basak, Suleyman, 1995. "A General Equilibrium Model of Portfolio Insurance," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1059-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. A. Berkelaar & R. Kouwenberg, 2000. "Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion," Econometric Institute Report 187, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 6-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  20. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, . "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 494, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erick W. Rengifo & Emanuela Trifan, 2007. "Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 180, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
  2. Erick Rengifo & Emanuela Trifan, 2008. "How Investors Face Financial Risk Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stephen Satchell & Wei Xia, 2005. "Estimation of the Risk Attitude of the Representative UK Pension Fund Investor," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0509, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arjen Siegmann & André Lucas, 2002. "Explaining Hedge Fund Investment Styles by Loss Aversion," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-046/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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