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Outlier detection in the GARCH (1,1) model

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Author Info
Ph.H.B.F. Franses ()
D.J.C. van Dijk () (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)

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Abstract

In this paper the issue of detecting and handling outliers in the GARCH(1,1) model is addressed. Simulation evidence shows that neglecting even a single outlier has a dramatic on parameter estimates. To detect and correct for outliers, we propose an adaptation of the iterative in Chen and Liu (1993, JASA). We generate the critical values for the relevant test statistic, and we evaluate our method in an extensive simulation study. An application to several weekly stock return series shows that correcting for a few outliers yields substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecasts.

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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number 155.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:1999155

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Related research
Keywords: autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity outliers forecasting volatility;

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  1. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1996. "Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of GARCH Estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 399-417, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1989-2), pages 137-190. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  7. Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
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Cited by:
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  1. Jussi Tolvi, 2001. "Outliers in eleven Finnish macroeconomic time series," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 14-32, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  2. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Outliers And Conditional Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity In Time Series," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws010704, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alberto Mora-Galan & Ana Perez & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Stochastic Volatility Models And The Taylor Effect," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws046315, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-069/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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