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On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting

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Author Info
M.P. Clements
Ph.H.B.F. Franses ()
J. Smith (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)

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Abstract

We consider the usefulness of the two-regime SETAR model for out-of-sample forecasting, and compare it with a linear AR model. A range of newly-developed forecast evaluation techniques are employed. Our simulation results show that time-series data need to exhibit a substantial degree of non-linearity before the SETAR model is favoured on some of these criteria. We find only weak evidence that a SETAR model of US GNP provides more accurate forecasts than a linear AR model.

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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number 141.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:1999141

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  1. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  3. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David Peel & Alan Speight, 1994. "Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 391-417, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
  9. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  13. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. repec:att:wimass:199710 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  17. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Oxford University Press for Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  18. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Kumar, Kuldeep, 1992. "Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 135-156, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  20. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Asmara Jamaleh, 2002. "Explaining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate through a non-linear threshold model," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 422-448, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Manzan, S. & Zerom, D., 2005. "A Multi-Step Forecast Density," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  11. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2008. "Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 102, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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