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Unit roots and asymetric adjustment - a reassessment

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Author Info
R.P. Berben ()
D. van Dijk () (FEW-Econometrie en besliskunde)

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Abstract

Standard unit root tests are misspecified in case the variable of interest is stationary but displays asymmetric adjustment towards its long-run equilibrium and, consequently, may suffer from a lack of power against such alternatives. This observation recently has aroused interest in developing test statistics which can be used to test the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of stationarity with asymmetric adjustment. In this paper we reconsider the test statistics put forward by Enders and Granger (1998). We point out an important deficiency of their tests and develop an alternative one which is based on more solid statistical grounds. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that our new test outperforms standard unit roots and the tests of Enders and Granger (1998) in terms of power against the alternative of interest. An empirical illustration involving the forward premium is provided to demonstrate the practical usefulness of our test statistic.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Faculty of Economics in its series Discussion Paper with number 101.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:1999101

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Related research
Keywords: threshold autoregressive model unidentified nuisance parameter asymptotic distribution forward premium;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
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  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    Other versions:
  4. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
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  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
  6. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-19, August.
  10. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!]
  11. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-76, April.
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  14. Corradi, V. & Swanson, N. & White, H., 1996. "Testing for Stationarity-Ergodicity and for Comovements Between Nonlinear Discrete Time Markov Processes," Papers 4-96-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  15. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
  16. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
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  17. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
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  18. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eklund, Bruno, 2003. "A nonlinear alternative to the unit root hypothesis," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 547, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carsten TRENKLER & Nikolaus WOLF, 2003. "Economic Integration in Interwar Poland - A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of the Law of One Price for Poland (1924-1937)," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/05, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
  4. A.M.R. Taylor & D.J.C. van Dijk, 1999. "Testing for stochastic unit roots - Some Monte Carlo evidence," Econometric Institute Report 149, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andy Snell & George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Testing for nonlinear cointegration between stock prices and dividends," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 90, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models," ESE Discussion Papers 104, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  7. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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