Dynamics in the dry bulk market: Economic activity, trade flows, and safety in shipping
AbstractRecent dynamics in iron ore markets are driven by rapid changes in economic activities that affect commodity markets, trade flows, and shipping activities. Time series models for the relation between these variables in Southeast Asia and the Australasian region are supplemented with models for safety and pollution risk. Steel production in China, Japan, and South Korea is related to iron ore exports and vessel activity in Australia, with an estimated time lag of about two months. The Purchasing Manager Index, which is popular among traders as indicator of economic activity, is found to have predictive power both for steel production and for iron ore exports. The growth in economic activity and vessel movements is associated with significantly higher risks for ship accidents and pollution.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2012-18.
Date of creation: 13 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.few.eur.nl/few
time series analysis; Southeast Asia; maritime safety; dry bulk; iron ore; pollution risk; steel production;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jostein Tvedt, 2003. "A new perspective on price dynamics of the dry bulk market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 221-230, July.
- Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2003. "The price-volume relationship in the sale and purchase market for dry bulk vessels," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 321-337, October.
- Bijwaard, Govert E. & Knapp, Sabine, 2009. "Analysis of ship life cycles--The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 350-369, March.
- Veenstra, Albert W. & Haralambides, Hercules E., 2001. "Multivariate autoregressive models for forecasting seaborne trade flows," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 311-319, August.
- Jane Jing Xu & Tsz Leung Yip & Liming Liu, 2011. "A directional relationship between freight and newbuilding markets: A panel analysis," Maritime Economics and Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 44-60, March.
- Warell, Linda, 2005. "Defining geographic coal markets using price data and shipments data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(17), pages 2216-2230, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anneke Kop).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.