Do experts' SKU forecasts improve after feedback?
AbstractWe analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthlySKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the momentthat experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. Wehave data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKUlevelforecasts for a variety of pharmaceutical products for October 2006to September 2007. We study the behavior of the experts by comparingtheir forecasts with those from an automated statistical program, and wereport the forecast accuracy over these 12 months. In September 2007these experts were given feedback on their behavior and they received atraining at the headquartersÂ’ office, where specific attention was given tothe ins and outs of the statistical program. Next, we study the behaviorof the experts for the 3 months after the training session, that is, October2007 to December 2007. Our main conclusion is that in the second periodthe expertsÂ’ forecasts deviated less from the statistical forecasts and thattheir accuracy improved substantially.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI2011-31.
Date of creation: 22 Sep 2011
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expert forecasts; model forecasts; cognitive process feedback; judgmental adjustment; outcome feedback; performance feedback; task properties feedback;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2011-11-07 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-11-07 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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