Combining Non-Replicable Forecasts
AbstractMacro-economic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expertâ€™s touch, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities of combined non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves a measurement error. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2010-44.
Date of creation: 28 Jul 2010
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combined forecasts; efficient estimation; expertâ€™s intuition; generated regressors; non-replicable forecasts; replicable forecasts;
Other versions of this item:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-09-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ETS-2010-09-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2010-09-03 (Forecasting)
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