It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?
AbstractThe internal models amendment to the Basel Accord allows banks to use internal models to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds, which are used to calculate the required capital that banks must hold in reserve as a protection against negative changes in the value of their trading portfolios. As capital reserves lead to an opportunity cost to banks, it is likely that banks could be tempted to use models that underpredict risk, and hence lead to low capital charges. In order to avoid this problem the Basel Accord introduced a backtesting procedure, whereby banks using models that led to excessive violations are penalised through higher capital charges. This paper investigates the performance of five popular volatility models that can be used to forecast VaR thresholds under a variety of distributional assumptions. The results suggest that, within the current constraints and the penalty structure of the Basel Accord, the lowest capital charges arise when using models that lead to excessive violations, thereby suggesting the current penalty structure is not severe enough to control risk management. In addition, this paper suggests an alternative penalty structure that is more effective at aligning the interests of banks and regulators.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2009-39.
Date of creation: 24 Nov 2009
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GARCH; risk management; forecasting; Value-at-Risk (VaR); Basel accord penalties; simulations; violations;
Other versions of this item:
- Bernardo da Veiga & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2009. "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-683, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Bernardo da Veiga & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2009. "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-186, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- NEP-ALL-2009-12-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2009-12-11 (Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2009-12-11 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-REG-2009-12-11 (Regulation)
- NEP-RMG-2009-12-11 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- da Veiga, Bernardo & Chan, Felix & McAleer, Michael, 2008. "Evaluating the impact of market reforms on Value-at-Risk forecasts of Chinese A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 453-475, September.
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