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Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets

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  • Hammoudeh, S.M.
  • Yuan, Y.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

Upon examining own volatility dependency for the three major sectors, namely Service, Industrial and Banking, in four GCC economies (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE), the empirical findings suggest that Banking seems to be the least sensitive among the sectors to past own volatility, while Industrial is the most volatile to the onset of past shocks or news. Sector volatility spillovers show that Saudi Arabia has the least inter-sector spillovers, while tiny Qatar has the most. Saudi Arabia seems to be the most sensitive to geopolitics, while Kuwait is the least affected. The constant conditional correlations between the three sectors for all four GCC markets echo different economic advantages and varying roles in the economy. We also provide two examples using the estimates of the GCC equity sector markets for portfolio designs and hedging strategies.

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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2008-29.

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Date of creation: 10 Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:1765013780

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  1. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
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  5. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  6. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2008. "Sudden changes in volatility in emerging markets: The case of Gulf Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 47-63.
  7. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622.
  8. Hassan, Syed Aun & Malik, Farooq, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH modeling of sector volatility transmission," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 470-480, July.
  9. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2007. "Characteristics of permanent and transitory returns in oil-sensitive emerging stock markets: The case of GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-245, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-641, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
  3. Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Oral Williams, 2011. "Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 11/138, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2010. "Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers, Asymmetries and Hedging in Major Oil Markets," Working Papers in Economics 10/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 945-959.
  6. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
  7. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Working Papers hal-00798038, HAL.
  8. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2013. "Sectoral equity returns and portfolio diversification opportunities across the GCC region," MPRA Paper 43687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Mohamed El Hédi Arouri & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2012. "Oil-stock volatility transmission, portfolio selection and hedging," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2768-2778.
  10. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets: A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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