Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?
AbstractWe develop a formal statistical approach to investigate the possibility that leading indicator variables have different lead times at business cycle peaks and troughs. For this purpose, we propose a novel Markov switching vector autoregressive model, where economic growth and leading indicators share a common Markov process determining the state, but such that their cycles are non-synchronous with the non-synchronicity varying across the different regimes. An empirical application to monthly US industrial production (IP) and The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI) for the period 1959-2004 shows that on average the CLI leads IP by more than seven months at peaks, but only by three and a half months at troughs. In terms of timeliness, the CLI is therefore most useful for signalling oncoming recessions. Furthermore, we find that allowing for asymmetric lead times leads to improved real-time dating of business cycle peaks and troughs and more accurate forecasts of turning points and IP growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2007-08.
Date of creation: 20 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.few.eur.nl/few
leading indicators; Bayesian inference; business cycles; Markov switching; real-time data;
Other versions of this item:
- Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013.
"Clustered Housing Cycles,"
2013/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
- Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2011.
"Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
11-154/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Nov 2011.
- Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," KoÃ§ University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008.
"Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition,"
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik),
Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
- Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-154/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Nov 2011.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2010.
"Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 309-344.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8 Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anneke Kop).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.