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The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series

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Author Info
Dijk, D.J.C. van
Strikholm, B.
Terasvirta, T. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)

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Abstract

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for industrial production series of the G7 countries. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/1676
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2001-12 Revision_Date: 2009-10-28.

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Date of creation: 30 Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:1765001676

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Keywords: Nonlinear time series; Seasonality; Smooth transition autoregression; structural change; time-varying parameter;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philip Hans Franses & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "On Seasonal Cycles, Unit Roots, And Mean Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 231-240, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeffrey A. Miron & J. Joseph Beaulieu, 1995. "What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 5258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  5. Beaulieu, J Joseph & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present," Special Studies Papers 107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  9. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal Adjustment When Both Deterministic and Stochastic Seasonality Are Present," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 242-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Kashyap, Anil K & Wilcox, David W, 1997. "Interactions between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 884-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
  15. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 376, Stockholm School of Economics.
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  16. Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-46, August.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Candelon, Bertrand & Dupuy, Arnaud & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "The Nature of Occupational Unemployment Rates in the United States: Hysteresis or Structural?," IZA Discussion Papers 3571, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Modelo de Crescimento Baseado nas Exportações: Evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México, em uma perspectiva Não Linear," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807170923500, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  4. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Structural Break Threshold VARs for Predicting US Recessions using the Spread," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_37, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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