On the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration
AbstractIn the paper we consider the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration analysis. For the nonseasonal unit root, such intercepts can generate a stochastic trend with a drift common to all observations. For the seasonal unit roots, however, we show that unrestricted seasonal intercepts generate trends that are different across the seasons. Since such seasonal trends may not appear in economic data, we propose a modified empirical method to test for seasonal cointegration. We evaluate our method using Monte Carlo simulations and using a four-dimensional data set of Austrian macroeconomic variables.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 9820.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.few.eur.nl/few
Monte Carlo simulations; seasonal cointegration analysis; seasonal intercepts;
Other versions of this item:
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M, 1999. " On the Role of Seasonal Intercepts in Seasonal Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 409-33, August.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M., 1995. "On the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration," Economics Series 15, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013.
"Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
- Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2009. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: A time series analysis approach," MPRA Paper 18908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansen, Soren & Schaumburg, Ernst, 1998.
"Likelihood analysis of seasonal cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-339, November.
- Lee, Hahn Shik & Siklos, Pierre L., 1997.
"The role of seasonality in economic time series reinterpreting money-output causality in U.S. data,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 381-391, September.
- Lee, H.S. & Siklos, P.L., 1997. "The Role of Seasonality in Economic Time Series: Reinterpretating Money-Output Causality in U.S. Data," Working Papers 97-1, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Löf, Mårten & Lyhagen, Johan, 1999.
"Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
336, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Lof, Marten & Lyhagen, Johan, 2002. "Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-44.
- Lof, Marten & Hans Franses, Philip, 2001. "On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-621.
- Cubadda, Gianluca, 2001.
" Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 497-511, September.
- Gianluca Cubadda, 2000. "Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0092, Econometric Society.
- Robert M. Kunst & Michael Reutter, 2000. "Decisions on Seasonal Unit Roots," CESifo Working Paper Series 286, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ozlem Tasseven, 2009. "Seasonal Co-integration An Extension of the Johansen and Schaumburg Approach with an Exclusion Test," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(1), pages 39-53, March.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M., 2007. "Analyzing a panel of seasonal time series: Does seasonality in industrial production converge across Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 954-968, November.
- Seong, Byeongchan, 2009. "Bonferroni correction for seasonal cointegrating ranks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 42-44, April.
- Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. "Testing of seasonal integration and cointegration with fractionally integrated techniques: An application to the Danish labour demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 326-339, March.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2003.
"Small Sample Improvements in the Statistical Analysis of Seasonally Cointegrated Systems,"
Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers
esdp03012, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2005. "Small-sample improvements in the statistical analysis of seasonally cointegrated systems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 333-348, April.
- Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1997. "Forecasting of seasonal cointegrated processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 369-380, September.
- Kunst, Robert M., 2009. "A Nonparametric Test for Seasonal Unit Roots," Economics Series 233, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216.
- Kunst, Robert M., 1997. "Decision Bounds for Data-Admissible Seasonal Models," Economics Series 51, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Darne, Olivier, 2004. "Seasonal cointegration for monthly data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 349-356, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anneke Kop).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.