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A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects

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Author Info
Fok, D.
Horváth, C.
Paap, R.
Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)

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Abstract

For promotional planning and market segmentation it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on category and brand sales. In this paper we put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in short-run and long-run effects of promotions on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows us to disentangle the long-run effects from the short-run effects. In a second level of the model, we correlate the short-run and long-run elasticities with various brand-specific and category-specific characteristics. The model is applied to weekly sales of 100 different brands in 25 product categories. Our empirical results allow us to make generalizing statements on the dynamic effects of promotions in a statistically coherent way.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/1476
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Report with number EI 2004-27 Revision_Date: 2009-11-06.

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Date of creation: 12 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:eureir:1765001476

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Related research
Keywords: sales; vector autoregression; short and long run effects; hierarchical Bayes;

Cited by:
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  1. Heerde, H.J. van & Dekimpe, M.G. & Putsis Jr, W.P., 2004. "Marketing Models and the Lucas Critique," Research Paper ERS-2004-080-MKT Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Koen Pauwels & Imran Currim & Marnik Dekimpe & Dominique Hanssens & Natalie Mizik & Eric Ghysels & Prasad Naik, 2004. "Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 167-183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-16.


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