IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/des/wpaper/1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling non performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardo Maggi
  • Marco Guida

    (Department of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)

Abstract

In this paper we model the effect of the non performing loans on the cost structure of the commercial banking system. With this aim, we comment on an increase in the non performing loans by studying the consequences of such a change on the cost function and compute the probability of failure of maintaining a performing loan as such. In so doing we are convinced that geography does matter and evaluate the risk propensity of the bank towards the nonperforming loans accordingly. We finally stress that traditional efficiency indicators of cost elasticity do not fit properly with such a problem and propose a measure based on the costs for managing and monitoring the loans which, according to the related density function, will reveal effectively as non performing.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Maggi & Marco Guida, 2009. "Modeling non performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy," Working Papers - Dipartimento di Economia 1, Dipartimento di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome, revised 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:des:wpaper:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dipartimento.dse.uniroma1.it/Economia/Publications/papers/maggi1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1991. "The dominance of inefficiencies over scale and product mix economies in banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 117-148, August.
    2. José Manuel Pastor Monsálvez & Lorenzo Serrano Martínez, 2000. "Efficiency, Endogenous And Exogenous Credit Risk In The Banking Systems Of The Euro Area," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-17, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Berger, Allen N. & Leusner, John H. & Mingo, John J., 1997. "The efficiency of bank branches," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-162, September.
    4. Bernardo Maggi & Stefania P. S. Rossi, 2003. "An efficiency analysis of banking systems: a comparison of European and United States large commercial banks using different functional forms," Vienna Economics Papers 0306, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    5. Guido Ascari & Valeria di Cosmo, 2005. "Determinants of total factor productivity in the italian Regions," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2005(2).
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Mester, Loretta J., 1997. "Inside the black box: What explains differences in the efficiencies of financial institutions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 895-947, July.
    7. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
    8. Matthews, Kent & Guo, Jianguang & Zhang, Nina, 2007. "Rational Inefficiency and non-performing loans in Chinese Banking: A non-parametric Bootstrapping Approach," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    10. Mitchell, Karlyn & Onvural, Nur M, 1996. "Economies of Scale and Scope at Large Commercial Banks: Evidence from the Fourier Flexible Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 178-199, May.
    11. Fried, Harold O. & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Shelton S. (ed.), 1993. "The Measurement of Productive Efficiency: Techniques and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195072181.
    12. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 526-556, June.
    13. Eastwood, Brian J. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1991. "Adaptive Rules for Seminonparametric Estimators That Achieve Asymptotic Normality," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 307-340, September.
    14. Resti, Andrea, 1997. "Evaluating the cost-efficiency of the Italian Banking System: What can be learned from the joint application of parametric and non-parametric techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 221-250, February.
    15. Fare, Rolf, et al, 1993. "Derivation of Shadow Prices for Undesirable Outputs: A Distance Function Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 374-380, May.
    16. Jose Pastor, 2002. "Credit risk and efficiency in the European banking system: A three-stage analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 895-911.
    17. Richard Simper, 1999. "Economies of scale in the Italian saving bank industry," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 11-19.
    18. D'Auria, Claudio & Foglia, Antonella & Reedtz, Paolo Marullo, 1999. "Bank interest rates and credit relationships in Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1067-1093, July.
    19. Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2002. "Cost and Profit Efficiency of Financial Conglomerates and Universal Banks in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 254-282, February.
    20. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
    21. DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "A diagnostic test for the distribution-free efficiency estimator: An example using U.S. commercial bank data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 243-249, April.
    22. Jose Pastor, 1999. "Efficiency and risk management in Spanish banking: a method to decompose risk," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 371-384.
    23. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1982. "Unbiased determination of production technologies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 285-323, November.
    24. Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2005. "Bank Efficiency and Competition in Low-Income Countries: The Case of Uganda," IMF Working Papers 2005/240, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Dietsch, Michel & Lozano-Vivas, Ana, 2000. "How the environment determines banking efficiency: A comparison between French and Spanish industries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 985-1004, June.
    26. McAllister, Patrick H. & McManus, Douglas, 1993. "Resolving the scale efficiency puzzle in banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 389-405, April.
    27. Pittman, Russell W, 1983. "Multilateral Productivity Comparisons with Undesirable Outputs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 883-891, December.
    28. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-332.
    29. Bauer, Paul W., 1990. "Recent developments in the econometric estimation of frontiers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 39-56.
    30. Michel Dietsch & Ana Lozano Vivas, "undated". "How the Environment Determines the Efficiency of Banks: A Comparison between French and Spanish Banking Industry," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-29, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    31. Cavallo, Laura & Rossi, Stefania P. S., 2001. "Scale and scope economies in the European banking systems," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4-5), pages 515-531, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Elisa Fusco & Bernardo Maggi, 2016. "Bank Financial world crisis: Inefficiencies and Responsibilities," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2016/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    3. Elisa Fusco & Bernardo Maggi, 2022. "Computing nonperforming loan prices in banking efficiency analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Biswajit PATRA & Puja PADHI, 2016. "Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 215-236, Winter.
    5. Elisabetta Mafrolla & Viola Nobili, 2017. "Discretionary Accruals in Italian Private Firms and Non-Linear Bank Loan Granting," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(1), pages 83-99.
    6. Giorgio Calcagnini & Rebel Cole & Germana Giombini & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2019. "Bank Loan Deterioration: Is It All Fault of the Crisis?," Working Papers 1907, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    7. Tsionas, Mike G. & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2020. "On a High-Dimensional Model Representation method based on Copulas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 967-979.
    8. HOUBENOVA-DELISIVKOVA, Tatiana, 2014. "Banks’ Strategies Towards Non-Performing Loans In Bulgaria: Problems, Challenges Of The Regulation And Policies Alternatives," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 168-179.
    9. Bilal Mehmood & Haider Mahmood & Raisa Shabbir Ahmed, 2014. "Macro-Financial Covariates of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in Pakistani Commercial Banks: A Reexamination Using GMM Estimator," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(11), pages 443-448, November.
    10. Bhattacharya, Mita & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Valenzuela, Maria Rebecca, 2020. "Credit risk and financial integration: An application of network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Biswajit PATRA & Puja PADHI, 2016. "Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 215-236, Winter.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernardo Maggi & Stefania P. S. Rossi, 2003. "An efficiency analysis of banking systems: a comparison of European and United States large commercial banks using different functional forms," Vienna Economics Papers 0306, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    2. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2015. "Efficiency of the banking system in Vietnam under financial liberalization," OSF Preprints qsf6d, Center for Open Science.
    3. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
    4. Tai‐Hsin Huang & Mei‐Hui Wang, 2003. "Estimation of Technical and Allocative Inefficiency Using Fourier Flexible Cost Frontiers for Taiwan's Banking Industry," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 341-362, June.
    5. Williams, Jonathan & Nguyen, Nghia, 2005. "Financial liberalisation, crisis, and restructuring: A comparative study of bank performance and bank governance in South East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2119-2154, August.
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1997. "Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 175-212, April.
    7. Elena Beccalli & Pascal Frantz, 2008. "Do M&As in the EU banking industry lead to an increase in performance?," Working Papers 50-2008, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Dec 2009.
    8. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Huang, Tai-Hsin, 2017. "Cost efficiency and technological gap in Western European banks: A stochastic metafrontier analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 161-178.
    9. Wheelock, David C. & Wilson, Paul W., 2001. "New evidence on returns to scale and product mix among U.S. commercial banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 653-674, June.
    10. Altunbas, Y. & Gardener, E. P. M. & Molyneux, P. & Moore, B., 2001. "Efficiency in European banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1931-1955, December.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:96:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bauer, Paul W. & Berger, Allen N. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Humphrey, David B., 1998. "Consistency Conditions for Regulatory Analysis of Financial Institutions: A Comparison of Frontier Efficiency Methods," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 85-114, March.
    13. Allen Berger & Robert DeYoung, 2001. "The Effects of Geographic Expansion on Bank Efficiency," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 163-184, April.
    14. Yingzhuo Yu & Cesar Escalante & Xiaohui Deng & Jack Houston & Lewell Gunter, 2011. "Analysing scale and scope specialization efficiencies of US agricultural and nonagricultural banks using the Fourier flexible functional form," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(15), pages 1103-1116.
    15. Bos, J.W.B. & Schmiedel, H., 2007. "Is there a single frontier in a single European banking market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2081-2102, July.
    16. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chen, Ting-Hsuan, 2010. "Estimating banking cost efficiency with the consideration of cost management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 424-435, November.
    17. Adnan Kasman & Canan Yildirim, 2006. "Cost and profit efficiencies in transition banking: the case of new EU members," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 1079-1090.
    18. Guohua Feng & Apostolos Serletis, 2009. "Efficiency and productivity of the US banking industry, 1998-2005: evidence from the Fourier cost function satisfying global regularity conditions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 105-138.
    19. Zuzana Irsova & Tomas Havranek, 2011. "Bank Efficiency in Transitional Countries: Sensitivity to Stochastic Frontier Design," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 230-270, December.
    20. Carvallo, Oscar & Kasman, Adnan, 2005. "Cost efficiency in the Latin American and Caribbean banking systems," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 55-72, January.
    21. Manlagñit, Maria Chelo V., 2011. "Cost efficiency, determinants, and risk preferences in banking: A case of stochastic frontier analysis in the Philippines," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 23-35, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non performing loans probability; Bank management; Cost function; Efficiency and effectiveness indicators; Flexible forms.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:des:wpaper:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudio Sardoni (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferosit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.