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Modeling non performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy

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Author Info
Bernardo Maggi
Marco Guida () (Dipartimento di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome Italy)
Abstract

In this paper we model the effect of the non performing loans on the cost structure of the commercial banking system. With this aim, we comment on an increase in the non performing loans by studying the consequences of such a change on the cost function and compute the probability of failure of maintaining a performing loan as such. In so doing we are convinced that geography does matter and evaluate the risk propensity of the bank towards the non performing loans accordingly. We finally stress that traditional efficiency indicators of cost elasticity do not fit properly with such a problem and propose a measure based on the costs for managing and monitoring the loans which, according to the related density function, will reveal effectively as non performing.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome in its series Working Papers with number 1.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision: May 2009
Handle: RePEc:des:wpaper:1

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Related research
Keywords: Non performing loans probability; Bank management; Cost function; Efficiency and effectiveness indicators; Flexible forms;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production

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    Other versions:
  7. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-32.
  8. DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "A diagnostic test for the distribution-free efficiency estimator: An example using U.S. commercial bank data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 243-249, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mitchell, Karlyn & Onvural, Nur M, 1996. "Economies of Scale and Scope at Large Commercial Banks: Evidence from the Fourier Flexible Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 178-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  13. Michel Dietsch & Ana Lozano Vivas, . "How the Environment Determines the Efficiency of Banks: A Comparison between French and Spanish Banking Industry," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-29, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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