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Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries

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  • Dmitri A. Jdanov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Rembrandt D. Scholz

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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    Abstract

    A systematic comparison of the Human Mortality Database and official estimates of populations aged 80+ is presented. We consider statistical series for East and West Germany and also series for Denmark, England and Wales, France, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland. The Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) methodology re-lies on the methods of extinct and almost extinct generations. HMD estimates are precise if the quality of death data is high and the migration among the elderly is negligible. The comparisons between the HMD and the official populations are not fully appropriate for the 1990s since the HMD calculations are related to official population estimates. A significant overestimation of the male population aged 80+ and especially 90+ between the censuses of 1970 and 1987 was found in West Germany. The relative surplus of men aged 90+ increased from 5 to 20 percent, which expressed in absolute numbers indicates an increase from 2 to 10 thousand. In 1971-1987 the of-ficial death rates have fallen dramatically to implausibly low values. In 1987-88 death rates based on the official populations suddenly jumped to the HMD death rates due to the census re-estimation. In the 1990s an accelerated decrease in male death rates has resumed. For other coun-tries, the relative and absolute deviations from the HMD estimates were especially high in Rus-sia, Hungary, and England and Wales. Regression analysis reveals common factors of the rela-tive deviation from the HMD populations. The deviation tends to decrease with time, increase with age, be higher during inter-census periods than in census years, and to decrease after the introduction of population registers. (Key words: aging; elderly; population estimates; quality of statistics)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2005-010.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-010

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    Keywords: ageing;

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    References

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    1. A. Roger Thatcher & Väinö Kannisto & Kirill F. Andreev, 2002. "The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. A. R. Thatcher, 1999. "The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(1), pages 5-43.
    3. R. Thatcher, 2001. "The Demography of Centenarians in England and Wales," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 13(1), pages 139-156.
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    Cited by:
    1. von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin & Scholz, Rembrandt, 2006. "Lifetime Earnings and Life Expectancy," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim 07-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Michał Myck, 2011. "Policy challenges in Germany and Poland: what can we learn from the SHARE data," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 28.
    3. Mikko Myrskylä, 2010. "The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(12), pages 289-320, March.
    4. Dmitri A. Jdanov & Domantas Jasilionis & Eugeny L. Soroko & Roland Rau & James W. Vaupel, 2008. "Beyond the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality: an assessment of data quality at advanced ages," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2008-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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