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Lowest low fertility in an urban context: when migration plays a key role

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  • Francesca Michielin

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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    Abstract

    In countries with so-called "lowest-low" fertility, the lowest fertility levels are seen in the cities. The main reasons for this development is the difference in the cost of living expenses, combined with income constraints in cities, as compared to these same aspects in rural areas. If we focus our attention on the center of an urban area, migration needs to be taken into account, since it can contribute to particularly low yield fertility. In this paper we use the Turin Longitudinal Study, which has data on all people who have ever been residents in Turin (Italy) during the period 1971-2001. We study the interdependencies between fertility and out-migration choices for a selected group, from the 1956 birth-cohort. In order to fully understand fertility, we need to consider how fertility acts on out-migration choices. Our findings underline the important role of economic resources and life cycle events in such a context which seem to guide both fertility and migration behaviors. Moreover, while having a child significantly hampers long-distance migration, it also has a lower impact on short-distant moves.

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    File URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-050.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2002-050.

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    Length: 46 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-050

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    1. Lillard, L.A. & Waite, L.J., 1994. "A Joint Model of Marital Childbearing and Marital Disruption," Papers, RAND - Reprint Series 94-16, RAND - Reprint Series.
    2. Mincer, Jacob, 1978. "Family Migration Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 749-73, October.
    3. Lillard, Lee A., 1993. "Simultaneous equations for hazards : Marriage duration and fertility timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 189-217, March.
    4. William Frey & Frances Kobrin, 1982. "Changing families and changing mobility: Their impact on the central city," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 261-277, August.
    5. Alden Speare, 1974. "Residential satisfaction as an intervening variable in residential mobility," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 173-188, May.
    6. R. Davies & R. Crouchley & A. Pickles, 1982. "Modelling the evolution of heterogeneity in residential mobility," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 291-299, August.
    7. Øystein Kravdal, 2001. "The High Fertility of College Educated Women in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(6), pages 187-216, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hill Kulu, 2004. "Fertility of internal migrants: comparison between Austria and Poland," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2004-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Hill Kulu, 2003. "Migration and fertility: competing hypotheses re-examined," MPIDR Working Papers, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany WP-2003-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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