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Tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios: Assessing the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain

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  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • José A. Ortega

Abstract

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2001) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohort and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5--1.75.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & José A. Ortega, 2001. "Tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios: Assessing the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-035
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-035
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    Cited by:

    1. David Coleman & Joop Garssen, 2002. "The Netherlands:Paradigm or Exception in Western Europe’s Demography?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(12), pages 433-468.
    2. Frątczak, Ewa, 2004. "Family and Fertility in Poland: Changes during the Transition Period," Discussion Paper 206, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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