Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Examining structural shifts in mortality using the Lee-Carter method

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lawrence R. Carter
  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

We present an extension of the Lee-Carter method of modeling mortality to examine structural shifts in trajectories of mortality. Austrian data consisting of 53 years of single-age mortality rates are subdivided into 30 24-year submatrices. Using singular value decomposition, the submatrices are decomposed into three component submatrices: 1) the multiple realizations of the index of mortality to which each respective age-specific death rate is linearly related; 2) the average shape across age of the log of mortality schedules; 3) the sensitivity of the log of mortality at each age to variations in the elements of the index of mortality. We refer to these latter submatrices to locate structural changes in mortality patterns. A comparison of the observed and estimated life expectancy indicates that the extended Lee-Carter method is superior to the original Lee-Carter method, particularly so for life expectancies at higher ages. We conclude by projecting life expectancy up to 2050, applying the Lee-Carter method to the whole time series (1947-1999) and comparing it to an application of the Lee-Carter method to the latest subsample (1976-1999). (AUTHORS)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-007.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2001-007.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-007

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2010. "A comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
  3. Jorge Bravo, 2011. "Pricing Longevity Bonds Using Affine-Jump Diffusion Models," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_29, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Wilhelm).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.