Economic Growth and Demography
AbstractThe goal of this article is to discuss the interaction between Russian demographic problems and its specialization on the extraction of natural resources. We have several simultaneous processes since 1990s: specialization in extraction of natural resources and demographic problem caused by low fertility in 1990s. Russia has no labor scarcity at present, but will face it in 10 years. Also, its proven oil resources are only for 20 years, and this calls for a necessity of economic diversification. While resource-extraction technology is less labor intensive, movement to technological development will require more labor, and this labor should be skilled. Thus, Russia faces a problem of optimal transition from resource extraction to technological development with simultaneous labor training in the environment of its growing scarcity. Capital from resource export can be used for both investment in new technologies and demographic recovery. Fertility is also endogenous here, depending on consumption level. The policy implications are very important. While there is little reason for boosting fertility initially (since extraction sector is not labor intensive), demography has high inertia, and it will be too late after, especially when oil resources will be close to depletion. The formal modelling is done is the framework of two sector growth model. A sequence of models of dynamic growth, starting from more simple towards more complex, is suggested.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c016_061.
Length: 21 pages JEL Classification:
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2012-05-15 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-05-15 (Transition Economics)
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