IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/deg/conpap/c011_025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Growth Overshooting and Trade in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ulla Lehmijoki
  • Tapio Palokangas

Abstract

This paper examines a developing economy by a family-optimization model in which the number of children is a normal good in preferences. Trade liberalization generates two effects: an income effect, which raises population growth in the short run; and a gender wage effect, which decreases that in the long run. With higher income, families invest more in capital. Because female labor is more complementary to capital, a higher level of investment increases women's relative wages and attracts more of them from child rearing into production. Consequently, the population growth rate falls below the original level in the long run. This paper also provides some empirical evidence on these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulla Lehmijoki & Tapio Palokangas, 2006. "Population Growth Overshooting and Trade in Developing Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_025, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c011_025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_11/C011_025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    3. Jan Willem Gunning & Paul Collier, 1999. "Explaining African Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 64-111, March.
    4. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 299-303, May.
    5. Eric Neumayer & Indra De Soysa, 2007. "Globalisation, Women's Economic Rights and Forced Labour," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(10), pages 1510-1535, October.
    6. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    7. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    8. Corneo, Giacomo & Jeanne, Olivier, 2001. "On relative-wealth effects and long-run growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 349-358, December.
    9. Remco H. Oostendorp, 2009. "Globalization and the Gender Wage Gap," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 23(1), pages 141-161, January.
    10. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
    11. Chang, Wen-ya & Hsieh, Yi-ni & Lai, Ching-chong, 2000. "Social status, inflation, and endogenous growth in a cash-in-advance economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 535-545, September.
    12. Tamura, Robert, 2006. "Human capital and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 26-72, February.
    13. Razin, Assaf & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1975. "An Intergenerational Model of Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 923-933, December.
    14. Corneo, Giacomo & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "On relative wealth effects and the optimality of growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 87-92, January.
    15. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    16. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fisher, Walter H. & Hof, Franz X., 2005. "Status seeking in the small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-232, June.
    18. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Basheer Ahmad Samim & Nadiya Rashid, 2016. "Gender Discrimination in assigning Dull or Challenging Tasks in Banking Sector of Pakistan," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 10(1), pages 12-20, Spring.
    2. Lehmijoki, Ulla & Palokangas, Tapio K., 2016. "Fertility, Mortality and Environmental Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 10465, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Thomas Gries & Rainer Grundmann, 2014. "Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1165-1186, October.
    4. Aleksandr Tarasyev & Ilya Krivenko & Maria Pecherkina & Tatiana Kashina, 2016. "Simulation of the Investment Attractiveness of Science in a Region," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 303-314.
    5. Lehmijoki, Ulla & Palokangas, Tapio K., 2014. "Land Reforms, Status and Population Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 8054, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Ulla Lehmijoki & Tapio Palokangas, 2010. "Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1351-1370, September.
    7. Sanjukta Roy, 2014. "Media development and political stability: an analysis of sub-saharan Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(2), pages 255-273, April-Jun.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Angeles, 2010. "Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 99-120, January.
    2. Ulla Lehmijoki & Tapio Palokangas, 2010. "Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1351-1370, September.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    4. Michael Grimm, 2000. "Comportement familial, inégalités et croissance : Une revue de la littérature," Working Papers DT/2000/09, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
    6. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Leonid Azarnert, 2010. "Free education, fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 449-468, March.
    8. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    9. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maria Fröling, 2011. "Energy use, population and growth, 1800–1970," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1133-1163, July.
    11. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    12. Thomas Baudin, 2011. "Family Policies: What Does the Standard Endogenous Fertility Model Tell Us?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(4), pages 555-593, August.
    13. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2008. "The Evolution of Population, Technology and Output," MPRA Paper 17116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Aug 2009.
    14. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    15. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    16. William Lord & Peter Rangazas, 2006. "Fertility and development: the roles of schooling and family production," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 229-261, September.
    17. Sunha Myong & JungJae Park & Junjian Yi, 2021. "Social Norms and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2429-2466.
    18. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
    19. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-439, December.
    20. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: population growth; international trade;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c011_025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Pedersen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehhsdk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.