Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?
AbstractThe aim of this article is to investigate whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions, through jet fuel demand forecasts, using specific hypothesis and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. “scenario of type I”) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2◦C. Thus, aviation CO2 emissions are unlikely to diminish over the next decade unless there is a radical shift in technology and/or travel demand is restricted.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/9262.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2013, Vol. 18, no. 12. pp. 91-96.Length: 5 pages
Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change;
Other versions of this item:
- Benoit Cheze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?," Working Papers 1207, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-11-16 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-11-16 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2013-11-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-TRE-2013-11-16 (Transport Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal, 2011.
"Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025),"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/6792, Paris Dauphine University.
- Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
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