Sovereign Wealth and Risk Management. A New Framework for Optimal Asset Allocation of Sovereign Wealth
AbstractThis paper sets out a new analytical framework for optimal asset allocation of sovereign wealth, based on the theory of contingent claim ana lysis (CCA) applied to the sovereign’s economic balance sheet. A country solves an asset-l iability management (ALM) problem between its sources of income and its expenditures. We derive analytically the optimal asset allocation of sovereign wealth, taking explic it account of all sources of risks affecting the sovereign’s balance sheet. The optima l composition of sovereign wealth should involve a performance-seeking portfolio and three hedging demand terms for the variability of the fiscal surplus, and external and domestic debt. Our results provide guidance for sovereign wealth management, particula rly with respect to sovereign wealth funds and foreign exchange reserves. A real-life ap plication of our model in the case of Chile shows that at least 60% of the Chilean asset allocation should be dedicated to emerging bonds, developed and emerging equities. Ch ile’s current sovereign investment is under-diversified.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/7874.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Central Bank Reserves; Sovereign Wealth Funds; Asset-Liability Management; Contingent Claim Analysis; Balance Sheet;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-11-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2013-11-16 (Risk Management)
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