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Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models

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  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and magnitude of past realization of returns and the growth of industrial production. Our findings show that (i) macroeconomic activity is likely to affect carbon prices with a lag, due to the specific institutional constraints of this environmental market; (ii) the joint dynamics of industrial production and carbon prices seem adequately captured by two-regime threshold vector error-correction and two-regime Markov-switching VAR models compared to linear models as main competitors. The regime-switching models proposed are profoundly checked for their economic content and statistical congruency, and are found to provide a sound statistical framework for a comprehensive analysis of the carbon-macroeconomy relationship.

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Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/6970.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Publication status: Published in Economic Modelling, 2011, Vol. 28, no. 6. pp. 2634-2656.Length: 22 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/6970

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Keywords: Carbon price; Industrial production; Cointegration; Threshold cointegration test; Threshold vector error-correction; VAR; Markov-switching VAR;

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Cited by:
  1. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
  2. Esteve, Vicente & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2012. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1857–2007," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2148-2156.
  3. Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 598-605.
  4. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
  5. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Cointegration between carbon spot and futures prices : from linear to nonlinear modeling," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7936, Paris Dauphine University.

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