Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables
AbstractThis article aims at evaluating potential growth for France, Germany and the euro area during the period from after the 2007-2008 credit crisis until 2012. Such an assessment plays a central role in the determination of the structural deficit and therefore in the definition of consolidation plans. After presenting the possible effects of the crisis on potential growth identified by the literature, we use for our evaluations an unobserved component model. This helps to reconcile the so-called traditional approaches, based on the use of a production function and the statistical approaches based on filtering methods. Our evaluations show for the different areas that the crisis has had a significant impact on potential growth starting in 2009; by 2012, potential growth should remain weak. The low potential growth is caused in part by a sharp decline in labor input, particularly in France and the euro area. This decline stems mainly from an increase of structural unemployment, except in Germany.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/6706.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2011, no. 116. pp. 89-112.Length: 23 pages
Financial crisis; unobserved component models; potential growth; crise financière; modèles à composantes inobservables; croissance potentielle;
Other versions of this item:
- Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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