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La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d’équilibre

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  • Mestiri, Sana
  • Bouveret, Antoine
  • Sterdyniak, Henri

Abstract

Using equilibrium exchange rate models (PPP, BEER and FEER), many authors have concluded that the renminbi is undervalued by 15 to 30% against the dollar, but they implicitly assume that the economy is at full-employment, a debatable hypothesis for developing economies such as China, whose unemployed amount to 150 millions people. On the contrary, we consider that China is facing massive unemployment; if investment depends on expected potential demand (from domestic consumption and foreign demand), then an undervalued exchange rate (by traditional standards) is required for its policy objectives. Therefore the exchange rate can be analyzed as a policy tool used by the Chinese authorities to pursue their growth strategy. Equilibrium exchange rate theories are not suited for developing countries. For growth and stability, a managed exchange rate regime seems better that a floating one.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/5512.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, Vol. 98, no. 3. pp. 77-127.Length: 50 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/5512

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Keywords: Taux de change; Pays en voie de développement; Politique économique; Développement économique; Chine;

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References

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  1. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "Direct investment, rising real wages and the absorption of excess labor in the periphery," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
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  4. Antoine Bouveret & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Les modèles de taux de change. Équilibre de long terme, dynamique et hystérèse," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 243-286.
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  13. Ronald McKinnon, 2005. "Exchange rate or wage changes in international adjustment?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 261-274, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2009. "La globalisation financière en crise," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 13-73.
  2. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri, November.
  3. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudré, 2007. "On the contingency of equilibrium exchange rates with time- consistent economic policies," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  4. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Imbalances a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 124, pages 31-74.
  5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6125 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
  7. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
    [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
    ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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