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Detecting instability in the volatility of carbon prices

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  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

This article investigates the presence of outliers in the volatility of carbon prices. We compute three different measures of volatility for European Union Allowances, based on daily data (EGARCH model), option prices (implied volatility), and intraday data (realized volatility). Based on the methodology developed by Zeileis et al. (2003) and Zeileis (2006), we detect instability in the volatility of carbon prices based on two kinds of tests: retrospective tests (OLS-/Recursive-based CUSUM processes, F-statistics, and residual sum of squares), and forward-looking tests (by monitoring structural changes recursively or with moving estimates). We show evidence of strong shifts mainly for the EGARCH and IV models during the time period. Overall, we suggest that yearly compliance events, and growing uncertainties in post-Kyoto international agreements, may explain the instability in the volatility of carbon prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/5110.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Publication status: Published in Energy Economics, 2011, Vol. 33, no. 1. pp. 99-110.Length: 11 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/5110

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Keywords: Implied volatility; EGARCH; Instability test; Carbon price; EU ETS; Realized volatility;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Palzer, Andreas & Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Evaluation of Different Hedging Strategies for Commodity Price Risks of Industrial Cogeneration Plants," FCN Working Papers 2/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Mar 2013.
  2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2014. "Volatility spillovers between the oil market and the European Union carbon emission market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-234.
  3. Wilfried Rickels & Dennis Görlich & Gerrit Oberst & Sonja Peterson, 2012. "Carbon Price Dynamics – Evidence from Phase II of the European Emission Trading Scheme," Kiel Working Papers 1804, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
  5. Claudia Kettner & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Angela Köppl & Thomas Schinko & Andreas Türk, 2011. "ETCLIP – The Challenge of the European Carbon Market: Emission Trading, Carbon Leakage and Instruments to Stabilise the CO2 Price. Price Volatility in Carbon Markets: Why it Matters and How it Can b," WIFO Working Papers 409, WIFO.
  6. Sahbi FARHANI, 2012. "Tests of Parameters Instability: Theoretical Study and Empirical Analysis on Two Types of Models (ARMA Model and Market Model)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 246-266.
  7. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
  8. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2012. "What Moves the European Carbon Market? - Insights from Conditional Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3795, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6970, Paris Dauphine University.
  10. Wei, Yu, 2012. "Forecasting volatility of fuel oil futures in China: GARCH-type, SV or realized volatility models?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5546-5556.
  11. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.

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