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AIDS and Income Distribution in Africa. A Micro-simulation Study for Côte d'Ivoire

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  • Cogneau, Denis
  • Grimm, Michael

Abstract

We try to link the distribution of the AIDS epidemic over an African population with the distribution of income. For this purpose, we develop a demo-economic micro-simulation model able to simulate over a fifteen years period the impact of AIDS on household and individual incomes. The model is implemented using a rich set of Ivorian surveys. The results reveal the complexity of the interaction between demographic behavior and the income generating process. The AIDS epidemic seems to hurt more the lower middle class of the Ivorian population, that is the richest of the poor, and confronts survivors of an affected household to downward, although moderate, transitions through the distribution of income. In the absence of other macro- economic impacts, the main effect of AIDS in Côte d'Ivoire is a shrinking of the size of the economy by around 6% after 15 years, leaving average income per capita, income inequality, and income poverty roughly unchanged. If now t he impact on private health expenditures was taken into account, then no doubt that AIDS would clearly increase consumption poverty and decrease welfare. Moreover, if the prospects and patterns of labor demand were significantly affected by AIDS, then agai n both the overall and micro- economic impacts of the epidemic would appear more dramatic. In any case, the annual cost of anti- retroviral treatment remains out of reach for almost all infected persons in Côte d'Ivoire.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/4567.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published in DIAL Document de travail, 2002
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/4567

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Keywords: distribution des revenus; SIDA; AIDS;

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  1. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
  2. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  3. David Evans & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Orphans and schooling in africa: a longitudinal analysis," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 35-57, February.
  4. Barnett, Tony & Blaikie, Piers, 1989. "AIDS and food production in East and Central Africa : A research outline," Food Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 2-6, February.
  5. Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Wachter, Kenneth W. & Knodel, John E. & VanLandingham, Mark, 2003. "Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of AIDS in Thailand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 193-206, January.
  7. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 0042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Magnac, Th, 1991. "Segmented or Competitive Labor Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 165-87, January.
  9. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  10. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
  12. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  13. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 02/38, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
  15. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Kremer, Michael, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-73, May.
  17. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
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Cited by:
  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
  2. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2006. "Socioeconomic status, sexual behavior, and differential AIDS mortality: evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 393-407, August.
  3. Denis Cogneau & Anne-Sophie Robilliard, 2004. "Poverty Alleviation Policies in Madagascar: a Micro-Macro Simulation Model," Working Papers, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) DT/2004/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Nov 2004.

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