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EUAs and CERs : Vector autoregression, impulse response function and cointegration analysis

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  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

EUAs are European Union Allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), while Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) arise from the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol. These emissions assets attract an increasing attention among brokers, investors and operators on emissions markets, because they may be both used for compliance under the EU ETS (up to fixed limits). This paper proposes a statistical analysis of the inter-relationships between EUA and CER price series, by using vector autoregression, impulse response function, and cointegration analysis on daily data from March 9, 2007 to January 14, 2010. The central results show that EUAs and CERs affect each other significantly through the vector autoregression model, and react quite rapidly to shocks on each other through the impulse response function analysis. Most importantly, both price series are found to be cointegrated, with EUAs leading the price discovery process in the long-term through the vector error correction mechanism.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/4226.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Publication status: Published in Economics Bulletin, 2010, Vol. 30, no. 1. pp. 558-576.Length: 18 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/4226

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Related research

Keywords: EUA; CER; Vector Autoregression; Impulse Response Function; Cointegration; Vector Error Correction Model; EU ETS; Price Discovery;

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  3. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "EUAs and CERs: Interactions in a Markov regime-switching environment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 86-101.
  2. Medina, Vicente & Pardo, Ángel & Pascual, Roberto, 2014. "The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 378-394.
  3. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  4. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Anticipating correlations between EUAs and CERs : a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5441, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Ange Nsouadi & Jules Sadefo Kamdem & Michel Terraza, 2013. "Analyse temps-fréquence de la relation entre les prix du quota et du crédit carbone," Working Papers 13-12, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Nov 2013.
  6. Mizrach, Bruce, 2012. "Integration of the global carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 335-349.
  7. Vicente Medina & Angel Pardo & Roberto Pascual, 2013. "Carbon Credits: Who is the Leader of the Pack?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 210-220.
  8. Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
  9. Oscar Carchano & Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero, 2012. "Rolling over EUAs and CERs," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  10. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2014. "Catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-122.

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