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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Discrete Time : an Analysis of Pessimism and Doubt

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  • Jouini, Elyès
  • Napp, Clotilde
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    Abstract

    The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of heterogeneous beliefs in an otherwise standard competitive complete markets discrete time economy. The construction of a consensus belief, as well as a consensus consumer are shown to be valid modulo a predictable aggregation bias, which takes the form of a discount factor. We use our construction of a consensus consumer to investigate the impact of beliefs heterogeneity on the CCAPM and on the expression of the risk free rate. We focus on the pessimism/doubt of the consensus consumer and we study their impact on the equilibrium characteristics (market price of risk, risk free rate). We finally analyze how pessimism and doubt at the aggregate level result from pessimism and doubt at the individual level.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/341.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2006
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006, Vol. 30, no. 7. pp. 1233-1260.Length: 27 pages
    Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/341

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    Related research

    Keywords: Beliefs Heterogeneity; Consensus; Pessimism; Asset Pricing;

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    Cited by:
    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2012. "Disagreement, correlation and asset prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 512-515.
    2. Hwai-Chung Ho & Chien-Chih Lin, 2012. "How do Heterogeneous Beliefs Influence Asset Volatility?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 601-616, October.
    3. Xue‐Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Boundedly rational equilibrium and risk premium," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(1), pages 71-93, 03.
    4. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Krusell, Per & Schneider, Martin, 2014. "Asset Trading and Valuation with Uncertain Exposure," Working Paper 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Robert, Christian P. & Napp, Clotilde & Marin, Jean-Michel & Jouini, Elyès & Ben Mansour, Selima, 2008. "Are Risk-Averse Agents more Optimistic? A Bayesian Estimation Approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2324, Paris Dauphine University.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing Theory: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Research Paper Series 186, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2011. "The dynamic behaviour of asset prices in disequilibrium: a survey," International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 101-139.
    8. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2011. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11032r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Aug 2012.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Tony He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Jacques A. Schnabel, 2009. "Divergence of opinion and valuation in a mean-variance framework," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 148-154, August.
    11. Xue-Zhong He, 2012. "Recent Developments on Heterogeneous Beliefs and Adaptive Behaviour of Financial Markets," Research Paper Series 316, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Min Shen & Gabriel Turinici, 2012. "Liquidity generated by heterogeneous beliefs and costly estimations," Post-Print hal-00638966, HAL.
    13. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Weinbaum, David, 2009. "Investor heterogeneity, asset pricing and volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1379-1397, July.
    15. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi & Min Zheng, 2012. "Asset Pricing Under Keeping Up With the Joneses and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Research Paper Series 302, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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