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Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal

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  • Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane
  • Bates, Samuel

Abstract

Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study analyzes the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives the GDP short-term component with a time-varying extent of fluctuations. The main sources of shocks result from external determining factors with an impact on the long run. However, their persistent effects have been mitigated particularly since the devaluation of 1994. International institutions have partially motivated the relative successful GDP growth path of Senegal. Nevertheless, some structural internal improvements are needed to balance the financial and productive flaws in order to consolidate both the "resilience" to shocks and the macroeconomic stabilization.

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Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/13298.

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Date of creation: May 2014
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Publication status: Published in Economics Bulletin, 2014, Vol. 34, no. 2. pp. 951-965.Length: 14 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/13298

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Keywords: GDP growth; Unobserved component modeling; Economic history of Senegal;

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