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Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?

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  • Fouré, Jean
  • Guimbard, Houssein
  • Monjon, Stéphanie

Abstract

Unilateral climate policy, such as carbon pricing, represents an additional cost to the economy, especially to energy-intensive industrial sectors, as well as those exposed to international competition. A border carbon adjustment (BCA) is often presented as an attractive policy option for countries that want to go ahead withou waiting for a global climate agreement. We used the computable general equilibrium model MIRAGE-e to simulate the impact of the introduction of a BCA on imports of energy intensive products in EU and EFTA countries and to evaluate the export losses their main trade partners would suffer. Given that a BCA is a trade measure, it would certainly lead to disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). If the BCA is considered illegal, the losses suffered by some partners may justify retaliation, as authorized by a WTO dispute settlement. The overall aggregated impacts of these measures would be negative but marginal, meaning that neither the BCA nor trade retaliation would have a marked impact on consumers' real income or GDP, while prohibitive retaliatory tariffs are more likely to target sensitive products in the EU. A BCA would ultimately be a signal of the EU's willingness to maintain an ambitious climate policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/13008.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Publication status: Published in CEPII Working Paper, 2013
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/13008

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Keywords: Emission trading scheme; border carbon adjustment; trade retaliation;

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References

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  1. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" hal-00975545, HAL.
  2. Paul Veenendaal & Ton Manders, 2008. "Border tax adjustment and the EU-ETS, a quantitative assessment," CPB Document 171, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an exhaustive and consistent measure of applied protection in 2007," Working Papers 2012-10, CEPII research center.
  4. Kuik, Onno & Hofkes, Marjan, 2010. "Border adjustment for European emissions trading: Competitiveness and carbon leakage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1741-1748, April.
  5. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2011. "The Copenhagen Accord/Cancún Agreements Emission Pledges For 2020: Exploring Economic And Environmental Impacts," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 53-78.
  6. Böhringer, Christoph & Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "The role of border carbon adjustment in unilateral climate policy: Overview of an Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF 29)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages S97-S110.
  7. Guillaume Gaulier & Soledad Zignago, 2010. "BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version," Working Papers 2010-23, CEPII research center.
  8. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
  9. Peter Holmes & Tom Reilly & Jim Rollo, 2010. "Border Carbon Adjustments and the Potential for Protectionism," Working Paper Series 0610, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  10. Scott Barrett, 2011. "Rethinking Climate Change Governance and Its Relationship to the World Trading System," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(11), pages 1863-1882, November.
  11. Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2010. "How to design a border adjustment for the European Union Emissions Trading System?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5199-5207, September.
  12. Dieter Helm & Cameron Hepburn & Giovanni Ruta, 2012. "Trade, climate change and the political game theory of border carbon adjustments," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 80, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  13. repec:old:wpaper:346 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Quirion, Philippe & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2011. "A border adjustment for the EU ETS: Reconciling WTO rules and capacity to tackle carbon leakage," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7940, Paris Dauphine University.
  15. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  16. Roland Ismer & Karsten Neuhoff, 2007. "Border tax adjustment: a feasible way to support stringent emission trading," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 137-164, October.
  17. Löschel, Andreas & Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria & Mennel, Tim, 2008. "Climate Policy and the Problem of Competitiveness: Border Tax Adjustments or Integrated Emission Trading?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-061, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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