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Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors

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  • Bec, Frédérique
  • Bessec, Marie

Abstract

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to 2011q4. Our empirical findings support the existence of a high recovery episode for inventory investment, during the quarters immediately following the recessions: it occurs later and lasts longer in manufacturing than in retail trade sector. Since a third phase of rapid recovery has not been found in final sales data so far, the rebound in inventories could in turn explain the GDP growth bounce-back pointed out in previous empirical studies. This calls for a careful modeling of the inventory investment behavior in any sensible theoretical explanation of aggregate business cycles.

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Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/11777.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Publication status: Published in Economics Bulletin, 2013, Vol. 33, no. 3. pp. 2209-2222.Length: 13 pages
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/11777

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Keywords: Threshold auto-regression; bounce-back effects; business cycles; inventory investment;

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  1. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The European Way Out of Recessions," THEMA Working Papers 2011-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  2. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  3. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Bec Frederique & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-Switching models," THEMA Working Papers 2011-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  5. Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," NBER Working Papers 2523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
  7. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1322-1339, August.
  8. Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
  9. Kim, C-J & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Working Papers 97-06, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  10. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-79, September.
  12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  13. Alan S. Blinder, 1984. "Can The Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," NBER Working Papers 1257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Total Inventories during Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturer's Inventories, pages 76-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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