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A Fear Index to Predict Oil Futures Returns

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  • Sévi, Benoît
  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macroeconomic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted Rsquared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/11714.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Publication status: Published in Note di lavoro, 2013
Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/11714

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Keywords: Oil Futures; Variance Risk Premium; Forecasting;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Derek Bunn & Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," Working Papers 2014-414, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Slim Chouachi, 2014. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The case of OPEC Countries," Working Papers 2014-421, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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