Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam
AbstractOur paper examines the long run relationship between economic growth and the current account balance equilibrium by relying on the BoP constrained growth model. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted when the period 1985 to 2010 as a whole is considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high ‘appetite’ for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011 to 2017.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/11406.
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in DIAL Document de travail, 2013
Economic growth; BoP constrained growth model; Multi country model; Asia; Vietnam;
Other versions of this item:
- A. Bagnai & A. Rieber & T.A.D. Tran, 2013. "Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam," Working Papers 13, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
- Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Thi Anh-Dao Tran, 2013. "Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam," Working Papers DT/2013/06, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
- Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Anh Dao Tran, 2013. "Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam," a/ Working Papers Series 1302, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2013-11-16 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2013-11-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2013-11-16 (South East Asia)
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