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"Not Only Defended But Also Applied" : The Perceived Absurdity of Bayesian Inference

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  • Robert, Christian P.
  • Gelman, Andrew
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    Abstract

    The missionary zeal of many Bayesians of old has been matched, in the other direction, by an attitude among some theoreticians that Bayesian methods were absurd—not merely misguided but obviously wrong in principle. We consider several examples, beginning with Feller's classic text on probability theory and continuing with more recent cases such as the perceived Bayesian nature of the so-called doomsday argument. We analyze in this note the intellectual background behind various misconceptions about Bayesian statistics, without aiming at a complete historical coverage of the reasons for this dismissal.

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    File URL: http://basepub.dauphine.fr/xmlui/bitstream/123456789/11069/2/1006.5366v5.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/11069.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Publication status: Published in American Statistician, 2013, Vol. 67, no. 1. pp. 1-5.Length: 4 pages
    Handle: RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/11069

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    Related research

    Keywords: Laplace law of succession; Frequentist; Foundations; Doomsdsay argument;

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    1. Stephen Senn, 2011. "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(42), September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Eibich, Peter & Ziebarth, Nicolas, 2013. "Examining the Structure of Spatial Health Effects using Hierarchical Bayes Models," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79844, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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