Trade effects of Regional Trade Agreements : trade creation and trade diversion within the Western Hemisphere
AbstractThis paper provides an ex-post assessment of the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) to see whether RTAs have been trade creating or trade diverting. We estimate the impact of RTAs on trade flows for country pair with dyed fixed effects and time dummies. These fixed effects capture the determinants of trade flows normally included in gravity model specifications and control for yearly shocks to countries’ trade. We use a gravity model inspired and adapted from Santos Silva and Tenreyo (2005) estimated with a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, which circumvents the heteroscedasticity bias encountered with the usual Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimators. Annual data from 38 countries covering six RTAs in the Western Hemisphere for the years 1986–2005 is used. Our estimation showed that PPML method reduces the estimated trade impacts of regional agreements. The estimates reveal that the trade creation variables are significant and positive except NAFTA and LAIA, while the trade diversion effects of the mentioned RTAs are varied remarkably. The insignificance of the trade creation variable for NAFTA seems due to the lack of sufficient number of observations since there are only three member countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/10626.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Economic Issues, 2010, Vol. 3, no. 2. pp. 221-238.Length: 17 pages
Regional Trading Agreements; Gravity model; Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood; Trade Creation; Trade diversion;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Alan V. Deardorff, 1995.
"Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?,"
NBER Working Papers
5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001.
"Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-92, December.
- Krugman, Paul R, 1991.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
- Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006.
"Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July.
- Cindy Duc & Emmanuelle Lavallee & Jean-Marc Siroen, 2008.
"The Gravity of Institutions,"
CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 95-113.
- Magee, Christopher S.P., 2008. "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 349-362, July.
- Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2009.
"Estimating gravity equations: to log or not to log?,"
Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 645-669, June.
- Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2007. "Estimating Gravity Equations: To Log or Not to Log?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 739, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Haveman, J-D & Hummels, D, 1996. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion : New Empirical Results," Papers 96-004, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexandre Faure).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.