Banks’ Earnings: an empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial markets factors
AbstractSince the 1990s’, a relatively ample research has been undertaken regarding the measurement of the volatility of bank earnings over time. The comparison between traditional deposits-loans banking and financial activities is a further specific theme in bank performance research. Few analyses have however directly addressed the explanation of the volatility of earnings. The present paper provides with an analysis of the influence of economic and financial factors through the sub-components of net earnings. Using a panel of European banks over 2005-2010, a period of marked changes in banks’ earnings, we identify significant influences and shed a light on the sensitivity of activity types. We find that net earnings are positively influenced by GDP growth, stock markets and, for most banks, negatively by interest rates. The influence of GDP is primarily located with loan impairments but also with commissions. Stock markets support both commissions and, in a greater extent, trading. We identify a negative effect of interest rates for both net interest income and trading. Earnings associated with financial activities appear slightly more sensitive, but the resilience of more traditional banking activities is also affected by economic and financial factors. Our results also head towards more exposure of banks running significant additional equities-related commission activities and equity trading. On the other hand, exposure to changes in interest rates may mitigate the sensitivity of earnings.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Paris Dauphine University in its series Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine with number 123456789/10353.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Net interest income; bank commissions; trading; loan impairments; bank earnings; earnings volatility; risk factors; diversification; sustainability;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-11-16 (Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2013-11-16 (Corporate Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002.
"Diversification in banking: is noninterest income the answer?,"
154, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Stiroh, Kevin J, 2004. "Diversification in Banking: Is Noninterest Income the Answer?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 853-82, October.
- Goddard, John & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O S, 2004. "Dynamics of Growth and Profitability in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1069-90, December.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
- Short, Brock K., 1979. "The relation between commercial bank profit rates and banking concentration in Canada, Western Europe, and Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 209-219, September.
- Hirtle, Beverly J. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2007.
"The return to retail and the performance of US banks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1101-1133, April.
- Beverly J. Hirtle & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "The return to retail and the performance of U.S. banks," Staff Reports 233, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Memmel, Christoph, 2011.
"Banks' exposure to interest rate risk, their earnings from term transformation, and the dynamics of the term structure,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 282-289, February.
- Memmel, Christoph, 2010. "Banks' exposure to interest rate risk, their earnings from term transformation, and the dynamics of the term structure," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gallo, John G. & Apilado, Vincent P. & Kolari, James W., 1996. "Commercial bank mutual fund activities: Implications for bank risk and profitability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1775-1791, December.
- Nguyen, James, 2012. "The relationship between net interest margin and noninterest income using a system estimation approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2429-2437.
- Lepetit, Laetitia & Nys, Emmanuelle & Rous, Philippe & Tarazi, Amine, 2008. "Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1452-1467, August.
- Kwast, Myron L., 1989. "The impact of underwriting and dealing on bank returns and risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-125, March.
- Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2008. "Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0875, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexandre Faure).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.