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Currency futures and currency crises

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  • Röthig, Andreas

Abstract

Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the underlying exchange rates. After a discussion of trading mechanisms and trader types, the linkage between futures trading activity and spot market turbulence is modelled using a VAR-GARCH approach for the exchange rates of Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea and Switzerland in terms of the US dollar. The empirical results indicate that there is a positive relationship between currency futures trading activity and spot volatility. Moreover, in the case of four out of the total of five currencies discussed in this paper, futures trading activity adds significantly to spot volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 4022.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Publication status: Published in Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics . 136 (2004-05)
Handle: RePEc:dar:ddpeco:4022

Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/4022/
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Related research

Keywords: Currency crises; Exchange rate volatility; Currency futures trading activity; VAR-GARCH estimation;

References

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  1. Eaker, Mark R. & Grant, Dwight M., 1987. "Cross-hedging foreign currency risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 85-105, March.
  2. Christian Jochum & Laura E. Kodres, 1998. "Does the Introduction of Futureson Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?," IMF Working Papers 98/13, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Eric Ghysels & Junghoon Seon, 2000. "The Asian Financial Crisis: The Role of Derivative Securities Trading and Foreign Investors," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-11, CIRANO.
  4. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-96, December.
  5. Brooks,Chris, 2008. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521694681.
  6. Christian Jochum & Laura Kodres, 1998. "Does the Introduction of Futures on Emerging Market Currencies Destabilize the Underlying Currencies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 486-521, September.
  7. Jarrow, Robert A., 1994. "Derivative Security Markets, Market Manipulation, and Option Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(02), pages 241-261, June.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  9. Dodd, Randall, 2002. "Derivatives, the Shape of International Capital Flows and the Virtues of Prudential Regulation," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  10. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1992. " Futures Manipulation with "Cash Settlement."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1485-502, September.
  11. Jarrow, Robert A., 1992. "Market Manipulation, Bubbles, Corners, and Short Squeezes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 311-336, September.
  12. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. " Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-34, December.
  13. Shastri, Kuldeep & Sultan, Jahangir & Tandon, Kishore, 1996. "The impact of the listing of options in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Dufourt, 2005. "La politique des économistes et l'économie des politistes à travers l'analyse des crises financières des vingt dernières années," Post-Print halshs-00397319, HAL.

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