The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence
AbstractThis study compares the relation between backwardation and optimal hedging demand as suggested by economic theory to empirical findings concerning the impact of weak and strong backwardation on hedgers' trading volume in six long and short currency futures contracts. First, the optimal hedging demand of a representative importer, with and without hedging costs, is derived. Then hedgers' position data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report are regressed on weak and strong backwardation. The empirical results offer little support for the hypotheses suggested by economic theory.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 35698.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics . 190 (2008-02-01)
Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/35698/
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hochschulstr. 1, 64289 Darmstadt
Phone: ++49 (0)6151 16-2701
Fax: ++49 (0)6151 16-6508
Web page: http://www.wi.tu-darmstadt.de/fachgebiete/fachgebiete_4/volkswirtschaftlichefachgebiete.de.jsp
More information through EDIRC
Backwardation; hedging; currency futures;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-95, December.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1990.
"Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ishii, Yasunori, 1977. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 768-69, September.
- Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1994. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis and Production Risk," Staff General Research Papers 10041, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Jin, Hyun J. & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Offshore hedging strategy of Japan-based wheat traders under multiple sources of risk and hedging costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, March.
- A. Chatrath & F. Song & B. Adrangi, 2003. "Futures trading activity and stock price volatility: some extensions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 655-664.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1993.
"Standard Risk Aversion,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May.
- Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
- Zilcha, Itzhak & Broll, Udo, 1992. "Optimal hedging by firms with multiple sources of risky revenues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 473-477, August.
- Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
- Broll, Udo & Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "Cross-Hedging of Exchange-Rate Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 282-86, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dekanatssekretariat).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.