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The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence

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  • Röthig, Andreas

Abstract

This study compares the relation between backwardation and optimal hedging demand as suggested by economic theory to empirical findings concerning the impact of weak and strong backwardation on hedgers' trading volume in six long and short currency futures contracts. First, the optimal hedging demand of a representative importer, with and without hedging costs, is derived. Then hedgers' position data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report are regressed on weak and strong backwardation. The empirical results offer little support for the hypotheses suggested by economic theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 35698.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2008
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Publication status: Published in Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics . 190 (2008-02-01)
Handle: RePEc:dar:ddpeco:35698

Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/35698/
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Related research

Keywords: Backwardation; hedging; currency futures;

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  1. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
  2. Broll, Udo & Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "Cross-Hedging of Exchange-Rate Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 282-86, October.
  3. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
  4. Miles S. Kimball, 1991. "Standard Risk Aversion," NBER Technical Working Papers 0099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. A. Chatrath & F. Song & B. Adrangi, 2003. "Futures trading activity and stock price volatility: some extensions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 655-664.
  6. Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 1994. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis and Production Risk," Staff General Research Papers 10041, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
  8. Ishii, Yasunori, 1977. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 768-69, September.
  9. Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fort, Rodney D & Quirk, James, 1988. "Normal Backwardation and the Inventory Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 81-99, February.
  11. Diamond, Peter A. & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1974. "Increases in risk and in risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 337-360, July.
  12. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-95, December.
  13. Jin, Hyun J. & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Offshore hedging strategy of Japan-based wheat traders under multiple sources of risk and hedging costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, March.
  14. Zilcha, Itzhak & Broll, Udo, 1992. "Optimal hedging by firms with multiple sources of risky revenues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 473-477, August.
  15. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
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