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Why Run a Million Regressions? Endogenous Policy and Cross Country Growth

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  • Rehme, Günther

Abstract

This paper analyzes the link between growth and public policy when the latter depends on economically important fundamentals. When policy is endogenous the measured effects of policy on growth will generally be biased. Using a widely quoted theoretical model, the signs of the biases are derived. It is shown that the usually reported effects on growth of tax rate variables related to GDP, the ratio of public investment to total investment and the ratio of redistributive transfers to GDP are generally biased downwards. Based on these signed biases the paper discusses some empirical results that seem puzzling from a theoretical viewpoint.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL) in its series Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics with number 21579.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Publication status: Published in Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics . 140 (2004-11)
Handle: RePEc:dar:ddpeco:21579

Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/21579/
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Keywords: Growth; Public Policy; Cross-Sectional Models;

References

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  1. Pecorino, Paul, 1993. "Tax structure and growth in a model with human capital," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 251-271, September.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Working Papers 2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. repec:chb:bcchwp:03 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Nancy L. Stokey & Sergio Rebelo, 1993. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," NBER Working Papers 4426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1993. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth," Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies 537, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Giuseppe Bertola, 1991. "Factor Shares and Savings in Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1975. "A Neoclassical Theory of Wealth Distribution," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 3386, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
  11. Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "Income distribution and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 827-835, April.
  12. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "A positive theory of social security," Economics Working Papers 108, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
  14. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
  15. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  16. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S126-50, October.
  17. Alesina, Alberto & Rodrik, Dani, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-90, May.
  18. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
  19. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124.
  20. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  22. Bourguignon, Francois, 1981. "Pareto Superiority of Unegalitarian Equilibria in Stiglitz' Model of Wealth Distribution with Convex Saving Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1469-75, November.
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