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Does Inflation Affect Output Varibility? Evidence from 40 Years of US Data

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Author Info
Talan Iscan
Lars Osberg () (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University)

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Abstract

The paper investigates whether it is the level of inflation, changes in the inflation rate or unanticipated inflation which influence the variability of sectoral output growth rate, using the U.S. monthly industrial data from 1957 to 1997. We experiment a range of specifications - our main findign is there is no systematic relationship between inflation and sectorial growth. The effective exchange rate and the real oil price do help to explain some of the dispersion in output growth rates.

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File URL: http://www.economics.dal.ca/RePEc/dal/wparch/stabilus.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Dalhousie, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive with number stabilus.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 20 Jan 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dal:wparch:stabilus

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation Sector Growth Variability

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. " Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 91(2), pages 401-32.
    Other versions:
  4. Tommasi, Mariano, 1994. "The Consequences of Price Instability on Search Markets: Toward Understanding the Effects of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1385-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz, 1997. "The Costs of Hiring and Separations," NBER Working Papers 6110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Debelle, Guy & Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from U.S. Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 132-52, February.
    Other versions:
  8. Bomberger, William A & Makinen, Gail E, 1993. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability: Parks' Study Reexamined," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 854-61, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 381-442. [Downloadable!]
  10. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  11. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  13. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Ramey, Valerie A, 1994. "Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 593-624, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Parsley, David C, 1996. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability in the Short and Long Run: New Evidence from the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 323-41, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1996. "Empirical Measures of Inflation Uncertainty: A Cautionary Note," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 333-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
  21. Puumanen, Kari, 1989. " Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 91(2), pages 433-34.
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