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Present Value Tests of the Current Account with Durables Consumption

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Author Info
Talan Iscan () (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University)

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Abstract

The present value tests of intertemporal model of the current account usually assume that all goods are traded and that aggregate consumption decisions can be closely approximated by a random walk process. This paper extends these models by explicitly introducing durables and nontraded goods into an intertemporal model of the current account, and tests the model using Canadian data. Since aggregate consumption expenditures on durables do not exhibit random walk behaviour even when the aggregate consumer has a quadratic utility function, the model that includes durables makes predictions that differ from those of the basic approach. When nontraded goods are also incorporated into the model, the most appropriate income variable becomes output net of nontraded production. These implications are examined using present value tests. The results suggest that introduction of both durables and nontraded goods improves upon the model with (traded) nondurables only. This seems to be due to the combination of durables and nontraded goods, as durables alone do not sufficiently refine the basic model.

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Paper provided by Dalhousie, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive with number present.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dal:wparch:present

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Keywords: current account; durables; traded and nontraded goods; Canada;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  6. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1998. "Capital mobility in the world economy: an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 741-756, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Iscan, Talan B., 2000. "The terms of trade, productivity growth and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 587-611, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. José De Gregorio & Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Végh, 1998. "Inflation Stabilization and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Documentos de Trabajo 26, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. John V. Leahy & Joseph Zeira, 2000. "The Timing of Purchases and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 7672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Banco de España Working Papers 0638, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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