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Firearms and the Decline of Violence in Europe: 1200-2010

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  • Carlisle E. Moody

    (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)

Abstract

Personal violence, has declined substantially in Europe from 1200-2010. The conventional wisdom is that the state’s monopoly on violence is the cause of this happy result. I find some evidence that does not support this hypothesis. I suggest an alternative hypothesis that could explain at least some of the reduction in violence, namely that the invention and proliferation of compact, concealable, ready-to-use firearms caused potential assailants to recalculate the probability of a successful assault and seek alternatives to violence. I use structural change models to test this hypothesis and find breakpoints consistent with the invention of certain firearms.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlisle E. Moody, 2015. "Firearms and the Decline of Violence in Europe: 1200-2010," Working Papers 158, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:158
    as

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    File URL: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp158.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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