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Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?

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Author Info
Matthew D. Shapiro (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Measured productivity is strongly procyclical. Real business cycle theories suggest that actual fluctuations in productivity are the source of fluctuations in aggregate output. Keynesian theories maintain that fluctuations in aggregate output come from shocks to aggregate demand. Keynesian theories appeal to labor hoarding or off the production function behavior to explain the procyclicality of productivity. If observed productivity shocks are true productivity shocks, a function of factor prices should covary exactly with productivity. In annual data for United States industries, that function of factor prices and conventionally-measured productivity move together very closely. Moreover, their difference is uncorrelated with aggregate output.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 822.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1987
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Publication status: Published in AEA Papers and Proceedings (May 1987), 77(2): 118-124
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:822

Note: CFP 677.
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles; macroeconomic fluctuations; productivity; aggregate demand; factor prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1986-1), pages 111-164. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 23-27. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hendrik S. Houthhakker, 1979. "Growth and Inflation: Analysis by Industry," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1979-1), pages 241-257. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 04/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Altug, Sumru G. & Filiztekin, Alpay, 1999. "Estimates of the Returns to Scale for US Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1990. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tor Jakob Klette & Zvi Griliches, 1996. "The Inconsistency of Common Scale Estimators When Output Prices Are Unobserved and Engogenous," NBER Working Papers 4026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 2212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 3361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie, 2004. "On The Rental Price Of Capital And The Profit Rate: The Perils And Pitfalls Of Total Factor Productivity Growth," CAMA Working Papers 2004-10, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  10. Francisco J. Goerlich, 1994. "Comportamiento cíclico de la productividad en la industria: shocks de oferta versus shocks de demanda," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(3), pages 491-515, September. [Downloadable!]
  11. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1339-1339 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 1999. "Productivity Growth and Factor Prices in East Asia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 133-138, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Increasing Returns, Durables and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael J. Hicks, 2007. "Hierarchical delays as a source of nominal price rigidities: evidence from the microcomputer industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 803-815. [Downloadable!]
  15. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January. [Downloadable!]
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