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Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies

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Author Info
Antoine Billot (Universite de Paris II)
Itzhak Gilboa (School of Economics, Tel Aviv University)
David Schmeidler (School of Mathematical Sciences, Tel Aviv Univ.)
Dov Samet (Tel Aviv University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d14b/d1492.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1492.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1492

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Related research
Keywords: Similarity; Probability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2004. "An Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000678, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1485, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2003. "Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000684, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:bep:theadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1284-1284 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  2. Jürgen Eichberger & Ani Guerdjikova, 2008. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Working Papers 0470, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eichberger, Jurgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2007. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Working Papers 07-03, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2006. "Contagion through Learning," ESE Discussion Papers 151, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh, revised 10 Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2008. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  6. Itzhak Gilboa, 2009. "Questions in Decision Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000335, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  7. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2007. "On the Definition of Objective Probabilities by Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000363, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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