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Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises

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Author Info
Bernardo Guimaraes (Dept. of Economics, Yale University)
Stephen Morris (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Market participants' risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition influence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important effects on the sustainability of currency pegs. We analyze such effects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices. The model, solved in closed form, generates a rich set of theoretical predictions consistent with many popular and academic (unmodelled) speculations about the onset and timing of currency crises. The results extend linearly to a heterogeneous agent population.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d14a/d1433-r.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1433R.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision: Oct 2004
Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007), 54: 2205-2230
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1433r

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Currency crisis; Global games; Risk aversion; Wealth; Portfolio;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2003. "Coordination and Policy Traps," NBER Working Papers 9767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, December.
  4. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 297-321, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  8. Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Nikola A. Tarashev, 2003. "Currency Crises and the Informational Role of Interest Rates," BIS Working Papers 135, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui, 2003. "Generalized Potentials and Robust Sets of Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1394, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Frankel, David M. & Morris, Stephen & Pauzner, Ady, 2003. "Equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Stephen Morris & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2004. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm424, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  20. David Frankel & Ady Pauzner, 2000. "Resolving Indeterminacy In Dynamic Settings: The Role Of Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 285-304, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2004. "EEAG European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo: Report on the European Economy 2004," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 1-148, October. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Acceding Countries: The Road to the Euro," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 119-136, October. [Downloadable!]
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